Thursday, 12 February 2015

2014 Year in Review and Performance

2014 was the second year I wrote this blog, and the experience has been rewarding. In the spirit of people who make predictions everywhere, I thought I'd do a review of the year, what worked, what didn't, and why. I'm going to keep this overview to the company's I profiled directly on the blog. I also write about larger companies and American companies at Seeking Alpha, and have included a few links to that site in various posts, but I'm tracking the performance of those ideas separately.

I ended last year with the following, so I'll include these choices as well as my new profiles from 2014. For the companies that were carry-overs, I'm taking their price from my 2013 performance article to Dec 31st, 2014 all other companies are from date of publication on the blog to Dec 31st, 2014. Exceptions are Chaparral Gold, where I'm using my sell call from here as the closing price, and McVicar Industries, an arbitrage play that paid out its $0.50 value earlier in the year.

I will do another yearly review next year around this same time, and will include all my new posts, plus the following that I'm keeping around for another year: Southern Pacific Debentures, Indigo, Axia NetMedia, Platinum Communications, Africo Resources, Advent Wireless, King George Financial, Phoscan Resources, Eyelogic, and Karnalyte.

This year wasn't very good, with performance pulled down by the Southern Pacific Debentures, which I unwisely doubled down into. They closed the year at $2/100 of face value, a victim of oil prices and lack of reservoir execution. The decline in oil prices also hurt the Touchstone nee Petrobank position, which was a net-net winner part way through the year but fell dramatically with oil prices. I'm still holding it, as although it's not a net-net anymore, it is very cheap. I will leave Touchstone on next year's list but not STP.DB.

My net-net positions did poorly this year, with material declines in Karnalyte, Eyelogic, and Africo, while Phoscan also declined slightly. King George Financial was up, while final picks Batero, Ryan Gold, and Rockshield Capital were all up slightly. I'll be keeping all of these net-nets for next year's tally.

Indigo and Axia Netmedia are operating businesses which had good execution for gains this year, while Platinum Communications is one with poor execution for a loss. I won't keep any for next year as I've closed my positions in all of them. Advent Wireless is an operating business with a big bucket of cash, it would show better if you counted the $0.10 special dividend, and I'll keep it on the list for next year.

Alberta Oil Sands is flat from recommendation, and I'm leaving it off next years list. Canadream is one of my bigger winners, and I'll leave it on the list for next year. They sold their building in Calgary which surfaced some value, and I expect a cheaper Canadian dollar will benefit them going forward.

Company  Profile Price   Year End 2014 Price Return
Southern Pacific Debentures  $            34.70  $                            2.00 -94%
Indigo  $              7.67  $                         11.97 56%
Axia Netmedia  $              2.65  $                            3.20 21%
Platinum Communications  $              0.18  $                            0.08 -56%
Africo Resources  $              0.43  $                            0.35 -19%
Advent Wireless  $              2.00  $                            1.69 -16%
King George Financial  $              0.31  $                            0.39 26%
Phoscan Resources  $            0.305  $                         0.285 -7%
Eyelogic  $              0.10  $                            0.06 -40%
Karnalyte  $              1.62  $                            0.80 -51%
Chaparral Gold  $              0.32  $                            0.68 113%
Petrobank Resources (Now Touchstone after 2:1 reverse split)  $              0.68  $                         0.315 -54%
Alberta Oil Sands  $            0.145  $                         0.145 0%
McVicar Industries  $              0.48  $                            0.50 4%
CanaDream  $            0.285  $                            0.47 65%
Batero Gold  $            0.095  $                            0.10 5%
Southern Pacific Debentures (Double Down Post) $10.06  $                            2.00 -80%
Ryan Gold  $              0.11  $                         0.115 5%
Rockshield Capital  $              0.06  $                         0.065 8%

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